Official-source fact · WF-10
Latest VONA notice relayed
Status of the official INGV aviation notice, relayed automatically as published, with the latest available satellite image.
Official sources
Before any decision, always check the official sources:
- INGV – Etna Observatory ↗ — state of the volcano, bulletins and VONA notices
- Italian Civil Protection Department ↗ — alerts and guidance for the public
- Catania Airport ↗ — airport operations; for flights also ask your airline
Latest outputs
What the workflows show right now.
Most recent output published on .
Experimental probabilistic estimate · WF-7
24-hour and 5-day probabilities
Educational activity probabilities computed from public data and compared with baselines; every forecast is recorded and checked afterwards.
Experimental heuristic estimate · WF-17
Multi-sensor activity
A 0–100 index fusing tremor, seismicity, thermal signals and event history, with declared data quality.
Deterministic calculation · WF-10
Where the wind would carry it
Indicative wind trajectories at several heights during the latest event. Educational simulation: it does not estimate ash amount, fallout or concentration.
Deterministic calculation · WF-5
Latest event: geospatial fusion
When a public Etna event is confirmed, the workflow combines several sources and two indicative 12-hour atmospheric trajectories.
How to read this data
Three kinds of information, not to be confused.
Facts from the source
VONA notices are issued by INGV and relayed as published, without reinterpretation.
Deterministic calculations
Wind trajectories at several heights come from public weather forecasts (Open-Meteo): they show an indicative direction, not how much ash will fall or where.
Experimental estimates
The 24-hour and 5-day probabilities and the multi-sensor activity index are educational models, compared with baselines and checked afterwards. They are not alerts or official forecasts.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about Etna today.
Is Etna erupting right now?
This page does not establish that. The official state of the volcano is communicated by INGV – Etna Observatory. Here you find the latest VONA notice relayed automatically and some educational indicators, each with its publication date.
What is a VONA?
VONA stands for Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation: the notice a volcano observatory issues for air traffic, with an aviation colour code. For Etna it is issued by INGV – Etna Observatory.
Where would the ash go?
The workflows compute indicative wind trajectories at several heights from public weather data. It is an educational simulation: it does not estimate ash amount, fallout or concentration and does not replace official products.
Are the probabilities official forecasts?
No. They are experimental, educational estimates, compared with simple reference models and checked afterwards. They are not alerts and must not be used for safety decisions.
Is Catania airport operating?
This page does not say. Check the Catania airport website and your airline.
How often is this page updated?
Images are refreshed once a week with the latest outputs published by the workflows, and each card shows the date of the post it comes from. Bluesky posts are more frequent.
Go deeper
The projects behind this page.
- WF-10 · Etna Sentinel — Automated relay of official VONA notices plus an educational wind-transport simulation combining INGV, Open-Meteo, NASA FIRMS/GIBS, pressure-level trajectories, infrastructure proximity and safety gates.
- WF-7 · Etna Forecast — 24-hour and 5-day probabilistic nowcasting with public multimodal data, strong baselines, a modality gate and declared degradation.
- WF-17 · Etna Fusion Lab — Fuses tremor, seismicity, thermal signals and event history with quality-adjusted weights; separates the 1h/6h Activity Nowcast from the 1d/5d VONA ash-positive forecast and keeps a prospectively verifiable ledger.
- WF-5 · Satellite — A public Etna event triggers multi-source fusion and two indicative 12-hour atmospheric trajectories.
Each card links to the project that produces it, with sources, method, checks and limitations. For the overall technical approach see Etna monitoring with AI, satellites and public data.
Follow the updates on Bluesky ↗
Experimental, educational content based on public data. It is not an official bulletin, does not replace INGV, civil protection or airport authorities and must not be used for safety or travel decisions.