Forecasts
Error, bias, coverage, directional accuracy and baseline comparison, only on matured outcomes.
General principle
Limitations of rules, indicators and models
Outputs produced by rules, indicators and models are experimental or informational results, not decisions.
They may be incomplete, unstable or incorrect, especially when data are missing or delayed, exceptional events occur, regimes change, or conditions differ from those observed during design and validation.
Where relevant and available, each result should be interpreted together with its baseline, observation period, sample size, metrics, measure of uncertainty and known failure conditions.
Results and evidence status
What is measured, under evaluation or operational.
The table does not invent a common score: it separates predictive evidence, operational reliability and activities still maturing.
| Workflow | Evidence status | Maturity | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| WF-1 · Weather automation | Operational | Active · educational | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-2 · The New Margin | Under evaluation | Active · experimental | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-3 · Market Overview | Under evaluation | Active · experimental | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-4 · AI Supply Chain | Under evaluation | Active · experimental | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-5 · Satellite | Operational | Active · event-conditioned | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-6 · Energy Crisis Thermometer | Under evaluation | Active · experimental | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-7 · Etna Forecast | Measured in workflow | Active · educational | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-8 · Bluesky multi-source | Operational | Active · experimental | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-9 · World Economy Engine | Under evaluation | Active · experimental · evidence-aware | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-10 · Etna Sentinel | Operational | Active · educational · fail-closed | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-11 · Hydrogen Route Observatory | Inspectable calculation | Experimental · calculation · evidence-aware | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-12 · Ammonia & Fertilizer Chain | Forecast maturing | Experimental · calculation + forecast | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-13 · Italy Variable Renewable Forecast | Observed source conditional | Experimental · forecast · point-in-time | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-14 · Process Sentinel | Synthetic benchmark | Experimental · simulated plant | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-15 · Virtual Analyzer | Synthetic benchmark | Experimental · simulated laboratory | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
| WF-16 · Energy & Steam Optimizer | Simulated optimization | Experimental · hybrid optimization | Open the project page for available metrics, period and limitations. |
Measured in workflow means that the project page publishes specific metrics; under evaluation means relevant metrics are not yet centralised; operational concerns checks, runs and traceability rather than predictive skill.
Available general metrics
Classifications and anomalies
Precision, recall or anomaly frequency when reliable labels exist; otherwise context and human review.
Operating workflows
Successful, failed, skipped and blocked runs, missing data and prevented duplicates.
Transparency rule
Never show only the best metric; state period, sample size and preliminary status.
Workflow status
| Workflow | Status | Cadence | Relevant metrics |
|---|---|---|---|
| WF-1 · Weather and neck-discomfort index | Active · educational | Monday, Wednesday and Friday | Run continuity, missing data caught and duplicates prevented. No clinical performance metric is claimed. |
| WF-2 · Refining margins and forecast | Active · experimental | Weekly | MAE, median error, bias and interval coverage, always with period and matured sample size. |
| WF-3 · Market Overview | Active · experimental | Weekdays | Directional accuracy, average move, errors, period stability and baseline comparison. |
| WF-4 · AI Supply Chain | Active · experimental | Weekly | Model-versus-naïve comparison, outlook error and basket stability over time. |
| WF-5 · Satellite — event-based Etna | Active · event-driven | Checked every 6 hours; posted only for a valid new event | Run outcomes (published, skipped, blocked), source availability and duplicates prevented. No operational dispersion skill is claimed. |
| WF-6 · Energy Crisis Thermometer | Active · experimental | Several weekly runs | Driver coverage, shipping confidence, OOS forecast metrics, Dynamic versus Static, drawdown and period stability. |
| WF-7 · Etna Forecast | Active · educational | Monday, Thursday, Sunday and events | Brier score, comparison with climatology/persistence/Hawkes, calibration, matured sample and gate-selected source. |
| WF-8 · Bluesky multi-source | Active · experimental | Monday, Wednesday and Friday | Source-gate audit, publication receipts, grapheme count, multi-image output and PDS/AppView verification. |
Status describes project maturity and does not guarantee continuous availability of external sources.
How to use this evidence
Different metrics answer different questions.
Delivery capability
Inspect testing, modularity, logging, schedules, error handling and communication of limitations.
Professional evidence →Empirical validity
Check baselines, temporal separation, sample size, calibration and negative results.
Academic checklist →Operating reliability
Assess freshness, skipped runs, blocking gates, idempotency and output traceability.
Applications →Data not yet centralised: the site does not invent an overall run-success rate. It will be shown only when a shared automated register supplies it.